Weekend Predictions: 'The Muppets,' 'Arthur Christmas' and 'Hugo'
Featured Stories - on November 22, 2011 by Phil Contrino
Three films aimed at families will try to defeat the Twilight juggernaut at the box office over the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Muppets is clearly the strongest newcomer this week. Adults will experience a rush of nostalgia, the presence of Jason Segel and Amy Adams will bring in teens/twentysomethings and the squeaky-clean jokes will be safe for younger children. The Muppets is shaping up to be yet another four-quadrant hit for Disney. Expect Segel's passion project to post solid numbers right up until the rush of Christmas releases overshadow it.
As of 1 p.m. PT, Fandango reports that The Muppets is responsible for an impressive 31% of daily sales.
Look for The Muppets to bring in $37 million from Friday-Sunday and $54 million from Wednesday-Sunday at around 3,300 locations.
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part I should end up finishing very close to The Muppets, and we're giving it a slight edge over the five-day period. Even though it has its share of detractors, Breaking Dawn - Part I is playing very well to its loyal fan base. A 92% approval rating from more than 52,000 Flixster users bodes well. Still, Summit's cash cow is headed for a massive decline after its monster opening last weekend. That part is inevitable.
Fandango reports that Breaking Dawn - Part I accounts for 45% of daily sales as of 1 p.m. PT.
Expect Breaking Dawn - Part I to bring in another $36 million from Friday-Sunday and $56 million from Wednesday-Sunday.
Arthur Christmas is poised to capture growing enthusiasm for its titular holiday. Sony's animated flick will need to grab as much cash as it can between now and December 25, which shouldn't be a problem if the rush of positive reviews are any indication.
Fandango reports that Arthur Christmas accounts for 5% of sales as of 1 p.m. PT.
Arthur Christmas should take in $15.5 million from Friday-Sunday and $22 million from Wednesday-Sunday at around 3,300 locations.
Plenty of reviews are pointing out that Hugo is designed more for cinema obsessives than it is for young children. As a result, Martin Scorsese's first foray into 3D seems doomed to be overshadowed during the holiday.
Hugo has yet to crack Fandango's top five sellers list.
Look for Hugo to take in $7 million from Friday-Sunday and $10 million from Wednesday-Sunday.
Check out the rest of our top 10 predictions in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|The Muppets||Nov 23, 2011||Disney
|The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1||Nov 18, 2011||Summit
|Happy Feet Two||Nov 18, 2011||Warner Bros.
|Arthur Christmas||Nov 23, 2011||Sony / Columbia
|Jack and Jill||Nov 11, 2011||Sony / Columbia
|Puss in Boots (2011)||Oct 28, 2011||Paramount / DreamWorks
|Immortals||Nov 11, 2011||Relativity Media
|Hugo||Nov 23, 2011||Paramount
|Tower Heist||Nov 4, 2011||Universal
|The Descendants||Nov 16, 2011||Fox Searchlight
|J. Edgar||Nov 9, 2011||Warner Bros.
Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.