Long Range Forecast: 'The Vow,' 'Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace,' 'Safe House' and 'Journey 2: The Mysterious Island'

Featured Stories - on December 17, 2011 by Phil Contrino

We've added The Vow, Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace, Safe House and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island to our Long Range Forecast this week. All four films are set to open on February 10.

The Vow should have no problem capitalizing on couples looking for a movie to see for Valentine's Day. The combined star power of Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams could turn the drama into a sleeper hit.

3D conversions will be huge in 2012, and The Phantom Menace could be one of the biggest. Star Wars may nitpick every decision George Lucas makes, but the reality is that they'll show up for almost anything he does.

Safe House will benefit from the unlikely pairing of Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds. The two actors have totally different fanbases to bring to the table.

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island will be hurt by the fact that it has to compete directly with The Phantom Menace, but it should still do well among families who won't be able to justify paying to see a film they can watch at home.

Check out our predictions for these films and others in the table below.

 

Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol: $29 million/$171 million
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: $21 million/$115 million
The Adventures of Tintin: $14 million/$100 million

 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 3D Feb 10, 2012 Fox
$22,000,000 $65,000,000
Safe House Feb 10, 2012 Universal
$18,000,000 $65,000,000
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island Feb 10, 2012 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000 $67,000,000
The Vow Feb 10, 2012 Sony
$24,000,000 $78,000,000
Chronicle Feb 3, 2012 Fox
$8,000,000 $20,000,000
The Woman in Black Feb 3, 2012 CBS Films
$17,000,000 $42,000,000
Big Miracle Feb 3, 2012 Universal
$9,000,000 $25,000,000
Man On a Ledge Jan 27, 2012 Summit
$10,000,000 $29,000,000
One For the Money Jan 27, 2012 Lionsgate
$11,000,000 $31,000,000
The Grey Jan 27, 2012 Open Road
$9,000,000 $30,000,000
Underworld Awakening Jan 20, 2012 Sony / Screen Gems
$22,000,000 $48,000,000
Haywire Jan 20, 2012 Relativity Media
$8,000,000 $23,000,000
Red Tails Jan 20, 2012 Fox
$9,000,000 $25,000,000
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Jan 20, 2012 Warner Bros.
$16,000,000** $70,000,000
Contraband Jan 13, 2012 Universal
$15,000,000 $38,000,000
Beauty and the Beast 3D Jan 13, 2012 Disney
$24,000,000 $68,000,000
Joyful Noise Jan 13, 2012 Warner Bros.
$19,000,000 $57,000,000
The Devil Inside Jan 6, 2012 Paramount
$16,000,000 $33,000,000
War Horse Dec 25, 2011 Disney / DreamWorks
$4,000,000* $65,000,000
The Darkest Hour Dec 25, 2011 Summit
$2,000,000* $15,000,000
We Bought a Zoo Dec 23, 2011 Fox
$14,000,000 $100,000,000

*opens on a Sunday
**represents first weekend of wide release

Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.

Tags: The Vow, Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace, Safe House, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island

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