Long Range Forecast: 'Rock of Ages' and 'That's My Boy'

Featured Stories - on April 21, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

june15.pngThis week we've added That's My Boy and Rock of Ages to our Long Range Forecast.  Both films are set to release nationwide on Friday, June 15.

It's Sandler vs. Cruise: Round 2 this year.  Back in 2010, Grown Ups ($40.5 million) and Knight & Day ($20.1 million, excluding $7.3 million made on Wednesday and Thursday) opened to a combined $60.6 million.

By comparison, I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ($34.2 million) and Hairspray ($27.5 million) combined for $61.7 million when they debuted opposite of one another in late July 2007.

Rock of Ages

PROS:

- Cruise built up some comedic goodwill after his popular Tropic Thunder cameo.  Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol has also helped to repair his image among women.
- Mamma Mia! & Hairspray opened to over $27 million each and showed legs throughout their summer runs.  Rock's popularity as a stage musical, plus its large and appealing cast, could help it reach similar heights.
- The appeal to men could be stronger than Mamma Mia! and Hairspray.
- Female moviegoers may go nuts for this kind of film.  Plus, who doesn't love 80s songs?

CONS:

- Appeal with women under 25 and teens could still be a tough sell compared to Hairspray and Mamma Mia!, especially sandwiched in between Snow White and the Huntsman and Brave.
- With recent 90s nostalgia-driven releases being met with relatively soft responses, there could be a similar reaction with regard to 80s nostalgia.
- There may be a potential audience overlap between it and That's My Boy.

That's My Boy

PROS:

- There's not much in the way of summer comedies up to this point, especially if The Dictator ends up posting lackluster numbers.
- Sandler still has his fanbase, even if it is shrinking over time.  While the overall product has slipped drastically, it generally hasn't been matched by the dip in tickets.
- The R rating could bring some older Sandler fans back.
- Andy Samberg has a decent following of his own.
- Although somewhat played down in the trailer, wedding-themed comedies tend to find success during this time of year (see The Hangover films, Bridesmaids, The Proposal, Wedding Crashers, etc.)

CONS:

- The R rating will keep some of Sandler's younger fans away (a crowd that helped drive the success of Grown Ups).
- It faces serious competition for women from Rock of Ages and likely for men from Prometheus's second weekend.
- Grown Ups opened to $40 million, but that also had Kevin James and a "whole greater than the sum of its parts" supporting cast.
- Sandler didn't do himself any favors with Jack & Jill last November.  That's My Boy could pay the price for that flick.

Check out our predictions for these films and others in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Rock of Ages Jun 15, 2012 Warner Bros.
$32,000,000 $120,000,000
That's My Boy Jun 15, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$30,000,000 $85,000,000
Prometheus Jun 8, 2012 Fox
$55,000,000 $190,000,000
Madagascar 3 Jun 8, 2012 Paramount / DreamWorks
$42,000,000 $140,000,000
Snow White and the Huntsman Jun 1, 2012 Universal
$58,000,000 $160,000,000
Men in Black 3 May 25, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$87,000,000* $195,000,000
Chernobyl Diaries May 25, 2012 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000 $31,000,000
What to Expect When You're Expecting May 18, 2012 Lionsgate
$20,000,000 $70,000,000
Battleship May 18, 2012 Universal
$48,000,000 $135,000,000
The Dictator May 16, 2012 Paramount
$20,000,000† $65,000,000
Dark Shadows May 11, 2012 Warner Bros.
$43,000,000 $108,000,000
Marvel's The Avengers May 4, 2012 Disney
$160,000,000 $370,000,000
The Pirates! Band of Misfits Apr 27, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$9,000,000 $35,000,000
Safe (2012) Apr 27, 2012 Lionsgate
$9,000,000 $23,000,000
The Raven Apr 27, 2012 Relativity Media
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
The Five-Year Engagement Apr 27, 2012 Universal
$23,000,000 $88,000,000

* = 4-day opening (Friday through Monday)
† = 3-day opening (excludes Wednesday & Thursday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Rock of Ages, That's My Boy

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