Long Range Forecast: 'The Watch' & 'Step Up Revolution'

Featured Stories - on June 02, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

july27.pngThis week, we've added The Watch and Step Up Revolution to our Long Range Forecast.  Both films are scheduled to open nationwide on Friday, July 27.

The Watch


- Vaughn, Stiller and Hill may be hit and miss individually, but together they could prove to be a strong draw.
- The Dark Knight Rises will still be dominating the market, but You, Me & Dupree opened to $22 million the week after Dead Man's Chest broke the opening weekend record in 2006.  In addition, Step Brothers managed to open to $31 million the week after The Dark Knight debuted in 2008.
- Jonah Hill is becoming more and more of a bankable comedic actor when given the right material and a strong supporting cast.  Coming off the success of 21 Jump Street can't hurt either.


- Expect this to be back-loaded as a result of The Dark Knight Rises and the Olympics opening ceremony combo.
- Despite the Step Brothers and You, Me & Dupree comparisons, its hard to discount the fact that The Dark Knight Rises will have some effect on this.
- The Campaign opening two weeks later could hurt its legs, especially with Ferrell & Galifianakis riding a slightly bigger wave of popularity than this film's cast at the moment (excluding Hill, perhaps).
- If Ted takes off at the end of June, it could dampen any demand for another comedy until August.
- Neither Vaughn or Stiller have had a hit in awhile.
- The lack of promotion so far (and title change) might be byproducts of the recent neighborhood watch-related shooting and controversy in Florida.

Step Up Revolution


- These dance movies always have their own niche audience.


- The Step Up franchise switching studios provides a question mark.
- The law of diminishing returns has already set in with the franchise. The third film (despite a 3D price advantage) opened just under $16 million, and both the second and third films in this series dropped in ticket sales and un-adjusted revenue when it came to opening weekend and total gross.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Prometheus, Madagascar 3, Rock of Ages, and Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D.

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Step Up Revolution Jul 27, 2012 Summit
$12,000,000 $31,000,000
The Watch Jul 27, 2012 20th Century Fox
$26,000,000 $86,000,000
The Dark Knight Rises Jul 20, 2012 Warner Bros.
$186,000,000 $520,000,000
Ice Age: Continental Drift Jul 13, 2012 Fox
$59,000,000 $200,000,000
Savages Jul 6, 2012 Universal
$14,000,000 $45,000,000
Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D Jul 5, 2012 Paramount
$16,000,000† $50,000,000
The Amazing Spider-Man Jul 3, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$64,000,000† $233,000,000
People Like Us Jun 29, 2012 Disney
$6,500,000 $23,000,000
Magic Mike Jun 29, 2012 Warner Bros.
$22,000,000 $78,000,000
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection Jun 29, 2012 Lionsgate
$20,000,000 $45,000,000
Ted (2012) Jun 29, 2012 Universal
$19,000,000 $65,000,000
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Jun 22, 2012 Focus
$13,000,000 $49,000,000
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Jun 22, 2012 Fox
$18,000,000 $45,000,000
Brave Jun 22, 2012 Disney
$58,000,000 $225,000,000
Rock of Ages Jun 15, 2012 Warner Bros.
$35,000,000 $135,000,000
That's My Boy Jun 15, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$30,000,000 $85,000,000
Prometheus Jun 8, 2012 Fox
$55,000,000 $200,000,000
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted Jun 8, 2012 Paramount / DreamWorks
$42,000,000 $140,000,000

† = 3-day weekend (Friday through Sunday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: The Watch, Step Up Revolution


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