Long Range Forecast: 'Paranormal Activity 4', 'Alex Cross', & 'Killing Them Softly'
Featured Stories - on August 25, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff
Three new films have joined our Long Range Forecast this week: Paranormal Activity 4, Alex Cross and Killing Them Softly. All three films are currently scheduled for wide release on Friday, October 19.
Paranormal Activity 4
PROS:
- Comparable to the first few yearly Saw films, the opening weekend draw could hold relatively steady.
- As was the case last year with Paranormal Activity 3, this will face very little competition from other horror options.
CONS:
- Although Paranormal Activity 3 seemed to generate slightly better reviews and word of mouth, it still ended up more front-loaded than the second film.
- Having a Tyler Perry-led film opening against it could lead to some potential audience crossover.
- Third sequels typically start to show fatigue in most franchises, potentially leading to a drop-off from the performance of Paranormal Activity 3.
Alex Cross
PROS:
- The character of Alex Cross could help Tyler Perry appeal to a larger audience.
- After declining grosses the past few years, Perry bounced back nicely this summer with the performance of Madea's Witness Protection.
CONS:
- Perry's fan base has proven that outside of comedy they aren't as willing to watch him on the big screen (see Good Deeds).
- Opening against Paranormal Activity 4 won't be an easy task.
Killing Them Softly
PROS:
- The drawing power of Brad Pitt and the presence of a strong supporting cast.
- Early reviews have been positive and the trailer has been well received.
CONS:
- The Assassination of Jesse James has a cult following, but nobody saw it in theatres.
- Killing Them Softly could prove to be one of Pitt's less mainstream films.
- Will face direct competition from the second weekend performance of Argo.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Lawless, The Possession, Finding Nemo 3D and The Words.
Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Killing Them Softly | Oct 19, 2012 | Weinstein Company |
$12,000,000 | $38,000,000 |
| Alex Cross | Oct 19, 2012 | Lionsgate / Summit |
$18,000,000 | $43,000,000 |
| Paranormal Activity 4 | Oct 19, 2012 | Paramount |
$45,000,000 | $88,000,000 |
| Argo | Oct 12, 2012 | Warner Bros. |
$18,000,000 | $60,000,000 |
| Here Comes the Boom | Oct 12, 2012 | Sony / Columbia |
$15,000,000 | $47,000,000 |
| Seven Psychopaths | Oct 12, 2012 | CBS Films |
$6,000,000 | $19,000,000 |
| Sinister | Oct 5, 2012 | Lionsgate / Summit |
$10,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Taken 2 | Oct 5, 2012 | Fox |
$34,000,000 | $102,000,000 |
| Frankenweenie | Oct 5, 2012 | Disney |
$20,000,000 | $74,000,000 |
| Pitch Perfect | Oct 5, 2012 | Universal |
$6,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
| Hotel Transylvania | Sep 28, 2012 | Sony / Columbia |
$22,000,000 | $68,000,000 |
| Looper | Sep 28, 2012 | Sony / TriStar |
$21,000,000 | $65,000,000 |
| Won't Back Down | Sep 28, 2012 | Fox |
$7,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| End of Watch | Sep 21, 2012 | Open Road |
$14,000,000 | $39,000,000 |
| Trouble with the Curve | Sep 21, 2012 | Warner Bros. |
$16,000,000 | $60,000,000 |
| Dredd 3D | Sep 21, 2012 | Lionsgate |
$13,000,000 | $35,000,000 |
| House at the End of the Street | Sep 21, 2012 | Relativity Media |
$22,000,000 | $63,000,000 |
| Finding Nemo 3D | Sep 14, 2012 | Disney |
$25,000,000 | $70,000,000 |
| Resident Evil: Retribution | Sep 14, 2012 | Sony / Screen Gems |
$23,000,000 | $52,000,000 |
| The Words | Sep 7, 2012 | CBS Films |
$8,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| The Possession Lawless |
Aug 31, 2012 Aug 29, 2012 |
Lionsgate Weinstein Company |
$21,000,000* $15,000,000* |
$42,000,000 $36,000,000 |
* = 4-day weekend (Friday through Monday)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.
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