Long Range Forecast: 'Paranormal Activity 4', 'Alex Cross', & 'Killing Them Softly'

Featured Stories - on August 25, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

oct19.pngThree new films have joined our Long Range Forecast this week: Paranormal Activity 4, Alex Cross and Killing Them Softly.  All three films are currently scheduled for wide release on Friday, October 19.

Paranormal Activity 4

PROS:

- Comparable to the first few yearly Saw films, the opening weekend draw could hold relatively steady. 
- As was the case last year with Paranormal Activity 3, this will face very little competition from other horror options.

CONS:

- Although Paranormal Activity 3 seemed to generate slightly better reviews and word of mouth, it still ended up more front-loaded than the second film.
- Having a Tyler Perry-led film opening against it could lead to some potential audience crossover.
- Third sequels typically start to show fatigue in most franchises, potentially leading to a drop-off from the performance of Paranormal Activity 3.

Alex Cross

PROS:

- The character of Alex Cross could help Tyler Perry appeal to a larger audience.
- After declining grosses the past few years, Perry bounced back nicely this summer with the performance of Madea's Witness Protection.

CONS:

- Perry's fan base has proven that outside of comedy they aren't as willing to watch him on the big screen (see Good Deeds).
- Opening against Paranormal Activity 4 won't be an easy task.

Killing Them Softly

PROS:

- The drawing power of Brad Pitt and the presence of a strong supporting cast.
- Early reviews have been positive and the trailer has been well received.

CONS:

- The Assassination of Jesse James has a cult following, but nobody saw it in theatres.
- Killing Them Softly could prove to be one of Pitt's less mainstream films.
- Will face direct competition from the second weekend performance of Argo.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Lawless, The Possession, Finding Nemo 3D and The Words.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Killing Them Softly Oct 19, 2012 Weinstein Company
 $12,000,000 $38,000,000
Alex Cross Oct 19, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
 $18,000,000 $43,000,000
Paranormal Activity 4 Oct 19, 2012 Paramount
 $45,000,000 $88,000,000
Argo Oct 12, 2012 Warner Bros.
 $18,000,000 $60,000,000
Here Comes the Boom Oct 12, 2012 Sony / Columbia
 $15,000,000 $47,000,000
Seven Psychopaths Oct 12, 2012 CBS Films
 $6,000,000 $19,000,000
Sinister Oct 5, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
 $10,000,000 $25,000,000
Taken 2 Oct 5, 2012 Fox
 $34,000,000 $102,000,000
Frankenweenie Oct 5, 2012 Disney
 $20,000,000 $74,000,000
Pitch Perfect Oct 5, 2012 Universal
 $6,000,000 $17,000,000
Hotel Transylvania Sep 28, 2012 Sony / Columbia
 $22,000,000 $68,000,000
Looper Sep 28, 2012 Sony / TriStar
 $21,000,000 $65,000,000
Won't Back Down Sep 28, 2012 Fox
 $7,000,000 $23,000,000
End of Watch Sep 21, 2012 Open Road
 $14,000,000 $39,000,000
Trouble with the Curve Sep 21, 2012 Warner Bros.
 $16,000,000 $60,000,000
Dredd 3D Sep 21, 2012 Lionsgate
 $13,000,000 $35,000,000
House at the End of the Street Sep 21, 2012 Relativity Media
 $22,000,000 $63,000,000
Finding Nemo 3D Sep 14, 2012 Disney
 $25,000,000 $70,000,000
Resident Evil: Retribution Sep 14, 2012 Sony / Screen Gems
 $23,000,000 $52,000,000
The Words Sep 7, 2012 CBS Films
 $8,000,000 $23,000,000
The Possession
Lawless 		 Aug 31, 2012
Aug 29, 2012 		 Lionsgate
Weinstein Company		 $21,000,000*
$15,000,000*		 $42,000,000
$36,000,000 

* = 4-day weekend (Friday through Monday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Paranormal Activity 4, Alex Cross, Killing Them Softly

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