Long Range Forecast: 'Life of Pi', 'Red Dawn', 'Rise of the Guardians', and 'The Silver Linings Playbook'

Featured Stories - on September 29, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

nov21.pngFour new wide releases join our Long Range Forecast this week as we take a look ahead to Thanksgiving weekend. Life of Pi, Red Dawn (2012), Rise of the Guardians and The Silver Linings Playbook are currently scheduled to open on Wednesday, November 21 to lead off the extended holiday weekend.

Life of Pi

PROS:

- Reaction to the film's trailer has been generally positive.
- Fans of the novel the film is based on should provide a built-in fan base, though the exact size of that fan base remains to be seen.
- This is going to be a huge international hit. Especially in India. That takes some pressure off the domestic gross.
- Plenty of Oscar buzz. Reviews out of the New York Film Festival are solid.

CONS:

- While the film has four-quadrant potential, in turn it will have to deal with competition from all of the weekend's other releases.
- Life of Pi should lose out to Rise of the Guardians in a big way when it comes to mainstream family audiences.

Red Dawn (2012)

PROS:

- The presence of Chris Hemsworth and Josh Hutcherson.
- Could get an added boost from patriotic crowds.

CONS:

- The poor history of other recent 1980s remakes at the box office.
- Skyfall will provide direction competition for those not in the mood for a family film over Thanksgiving weekend.

Rise of the Guardians

PROS:

- Opening during Thanksgiving weekend should be perfect timing for this holiday-themed film.
- Outside of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, the December schedule doesn't have a lot to offer family audiences this year. That could prove to be a big help to the holding power for Rise of the Guardians.
- DreamWorks Animation has a steady and dependable box office history with it's recent fall releases (Puss in Boots, Megamind, Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa and Bee Movie).

CONS:

- Opens shortly after Disney's Wreck-It Ralph.
- Of the two films, Wreck-It Ralph is more likely to appeal towards non-family audiences.

Silver Linings Playbook

PROS:

- Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence could prove to be a bigger draw together than they have proven to be on their own.
- With David O. Russell as director, odds are strong that it will be a good film.
- Plenty of Oscar buzz right now. The film is considered by many to be a lock for a Best Pic nomination. A lot of Oscar pundits are also touting performances by Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro.

CONS:

- Cooper and Lawrence are coming off lackluster box office performances this fall, Cooper more so than Lawrence.
- The film will could have a very hard time appealing to Lawrence's teenage heavy fan base.

Notable changes on our forecast this weekend include Frankenweenie, Taken 2, Pitch Perfect, Here Comes the Boom, Seven Psychopaths, Argo, Alex Cross and Cloud Atlas.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Red Dawn (2012) Nov 21, 2012 Open Road
 $12,000,000* $36,000,000
Rise of The Guardians Nov 21, 2012 Paramount / DreamWorks
 $39,000,000* $148,000,000
Silver Linings Playbook Nov 21, 2012 Weinstein Company
 $11,000,000* $40,000,000
Life of Pi Nov 21, 2012 Fox
 $19,000,000* $68,000,000
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 Nov 16, 2012 Lionsgate
 $148,000,000 $294,000,000
Lincoln Nov 9, 2012 Disney / DreamWorks
 $17,000,000 $94,000,000
Skyfall Nov 9, 2012 Sony
 $76,000,000 $216,000,000
Flight Nov 2, 2012 Paramount
 $32,000,000 $98,000,000
The Man With the Iron Fists Nov 2, 2012 Universal
 $11,000,000 $26,000,000
Wreck-It Ralph Nov 2, 2012 Disney
 $53,000,000 $175,000,000
Fun Size Oct 26, 2012 Paramount
 $7,000,000 $17,000,000
Cloud Atlas Oct 26, 2012 Warner Bros.
 $21,000,000 $56,000,000
Chasing Mavericks Oct 26, 2012 Fox
 $6,000,000 $15,000,000
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D Oct 26, 2012 Open Road
 $10,000,000 $23,000,000
Paranormal Activity 4 Oct 19, 2012 Paramount
 $45,000,000 $88,000,000
Alex Cross Oct 19, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
 $17,000,000 $41,000,000
Here Comes the Boom Oct 12, 2012 Sony / Columbia
 $14,000,000 $45,000,000
Seven Psychopaths Oct 12, 2012 CBS Films
 $7,000,000 $22,000,000
Sinister Oct 12, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
 $10,000,000 $25,000,000
Argo Oct 12, 2012 Warner Bros.
 $16,000,000 $58,000,000
Frankenweenie Oct 5, 2012 Disney
 $17,000,000 $60,000,000
Taken 2
Pitch Perfect (Wide)		 Oct 5, 2012
Oct 5, 2012 		 Fox
Universal		 $34,000,000
$12,000,000		 $97,000,000
$35,000,000 

* = 3-day opening weekend (Friday through Sunday)

Shawn Robbins, Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill contributed to this article.

Tags: Life of Pi, Red Dawn, Rise of the Guardians, Silver Linings Playbook

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