Weekend Forecast: 'The Divergent Series: Insurgent', 'The Gunman', & 'Do You Believe?'

Featured Stories - on March 18, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

mar20pred.pngThree new films are set to open in wide release this weekend. Our analysis:

The Divergent Series: Insurgent

PROS:

- Last year's first film proved to find a solid audience, boasting somewhat strong legs for a young adult adaptation.
- The increased presence of Miles Teller in the trailers could be an asset thanks to his recent media presence due to Whiplash and Fantastic Four.
- The addition of 3D and IMAX for this installment should boost the average ticket price paid.
- Twitter and Facebook buzz have shown noticeable growth over the first flick.

CONS:

- Early reviews are rather disappointing, which could turn off most casual viewers.
- The positive word of mouth for Cinderella might be another hindrance as the two films compete for female audiences.
- Marketing has been hit and miss overall, featuring trailers that often fail to successfully convey the point and purpose of this sequel's story.

The Gunman

PROS:

- A fairly aggressive ad campaign has raised awareness to a moderate level.
- "From the director of Taken" could have its pull, mainly among older crowds.

CONS:

- Social media activity is weak, drawing less than one-quarter the amount of Twitter buzz as Run All Night did last week.
- Sean Penn's controversial remarks at the Oscars haven't endeared him to everyone.

Do You Believe?

PROS:

- Christian-themed movies really hit their mark last year, including God's Not Dead whose producers are also attached here. Will that goodwill carry over?
- The cast of recognizable names and faces should help with mainstream appeal, albeit not by much.

CONS:

- Marketing hasn't been as strong for this release as other Christian-themed films.
- It's been a while since a faith-based film became a hit; are we due? 

Check out our complete forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, March 22
The Divergent Series: Insurgent Mar 20, 2015 Lionsgate / Summit
$57,000,000 $57,000,000
Cinderella (2015) Mar 13, 2015 Disney
$35,000,000 $121,300,000
Run All Night Mar 13, 2015 Warner Bros.
$6,200,000 $20,800,000
Do You Believe? Mar 20, 2015 Pure Flix
$6,000,000 $6,000,000
The Gunman Mar 20, 2015 Open Road
$5,000,000 $5,000,000
Kingsman: The Secret Service Feb 13, 2015 Fox
$4,700,000 $114,500,000
The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Mar 6, 2015 Fox Searchlight
$3,900,000 $24,500,000
Focus (2015) Feb 27, 2015 Warner Bros.
$3,300,000 $49,400,000
CHAPPiE Mar 6, 2015 Sony / Columbia
$3,000,000 $28,600,000
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water Feb 6, 2015 Paramount
$2,500,000 $158,700,000
McFarland, USA Feb 20, 2015 Disney
$2,300,000 $38,500,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: predictions, The Divergent Series: Insurgent, Do You Believe?, The Gunman

3 Comments

What do you think?