Weekend Forecast: 'San Andreas' & 'Aloha'

Featured Stories - on May 27, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

may29.pngMay comes to a close this weekend with two new wide releases.

San Andreas

PROS:

- Dwayne Johnson's star power has never been bigger than it is right now, thanks largely to the Fast & Furious franchise.
- The lack of any major breakouts over Memorial Day weekend could give way to a surprise performance here.
- Facebook activity is very respectable with over 473,000 fans entering Wednesday - comparable to Hercules and more than Edge of Tomorrow.

CONS:

- Disaster flicks aren't the box office events that they used to be in the 1990s and early 2000s. See last year's Into the Storm.
- Twitter buzz leaves much to be desired, falling well short of overall activity versus most comparison titles.
- Reviews are already looking to fall largely on the negative side; that's bad news in an already crowded action market.

Aloha

PROS:

- The ensemble cast led should be very appealing to adult audiences looking for a break from action fests.
- Bradley Cooper in particular could be a drawing factor with this being his first film to open since American Sniper.

CONS:

- The review embargo not being lifted until the day before release is a major sign of concern.
- Twitter activity falls short of This Is Where I Leave You, and is even further behind on Facebook with a paltry 36,500 fans.

Top 10 Forecast

For the weekend, BoxOffice projects a $123 million haul from the top ten films -- down 22 percent from the same weekend last year, which pulled $157.68 million, led by the $69.4 million debut of Maleficent.

Check out our complete weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, May 31
San Andreas May 29, 2015 Warner Bros. / New Line
$37,000,000 $37,000,000
Tomorrowland May 22, 2015 Disney
$17,000,000 $66,800,000
Pitch Perfect 2 May 15, 2015 Universal
$16,000,000 $148,900,000
Mad Max: Fury Road May 15, 2015 Warner Bros.
$14,500,000 $117,000,000
Aloha May 29, 2015 Sony / Columbia
$14,000,000 $14,000,000
Avengers: Age of Ultron May 1, 2015 Disney
$11,200,000 $427,500,000
Poltergeist (2015) May 22, 2015 Fox
$8,200,000 $38,700,000
Hot Pursuit (2015) May 8, 2015 Warner Bros. / New Line
$2,200,000 $33,200,000
Far from the Madding Crowd May 1, 2015 Fox Searchlight
$1,700,000 $8,700,000
Furious 7 Apr 3, 2015 Universal
$1,200,000 $349,400,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: predictions, Aloha, San Andreas

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