Weekend Forecast: 'Tomorrowland' & 'Poltergeist'

Featured Stories - on May 20, 2015

may22pred.pngTwo new wide releases join an already competitive market for the extended Memorial Day weekend. How will they fare?

Also, please find our top 10 year-to-year comparisons below.

Tomorrowland

PROS:

- Disney's brand name is worth a lot these days thanks to a hugely successful past few years with audiences of all ages.
- Brad Bird is something of a draw among fans thanks to his work on Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, The Incredibles, and The Iron Giant.
- Rising star Britt Robertson could help appeal to young girls, while George Clooney brings a veteran presence for adults.

CONS:

- The huge success of last week's Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road will carry over to the holiday weekend, meaning Tomorrowland's two biggest target audiences (young women and fan boys) will already have their plate full. 
- While Bird is a hot name online, casual audiences aren't likely familiar with him enough for his name/credits to be an automatic selling point just yet.
- Social media activity has left much to desired, falling behind the pace of films like Interstellar and Edge of Tomorrow on Facebook and Twitter.

Poltergeist

PROS:

- We haven't had a horror film break out since last year. Is the market due?
- The PG-13 rating should help appeal to younger audiences.
- The original film is considered a classic today, so the nostalgia factor is in play for adults.

CONS:

- Social media activity, while steadily increasing, has fallen short of that of Annabelle and Ouija on Facebook and Twitter.
- The market is very crowded, so it's feasible that a remake could get overlooked this weekend.
- Early reviews aren't encouraging.

Top 10 Forecast:

We're forecasting the extended 4-day holiday frame to total $188.4 million among the top 10 films. By comparison, that would be down 13 percent from last year's $216.7 million 4-day Memorial Day weekend, which was led by X-Men: Days of Future Past's $110.6 million debut.

Check out our complete weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Monday, May 25
Tomorrowland May 22, 2015 Disney
$40,000,000 $40,000,000
Pitch Perfect 2 May 15, 2015 Universal
$39,000,000 $126,500,000
Mad Max: Fury Road May 15, 2015 Warner Bros.
$34,000,000 $97,700,000
Poltergeist (2015) May 22, 2015 Fox
$33,000,000 $33,000,000
Avengers: Age of Ultron May 1, 2015 Disney
$28,000,000 $411,200,000
Hot Pursuit (2015) May 8, 2015 Warner Bros. / New Line
$3,700,000 $29,100,000
Furious 7 Apr 3, 2015 Universal
$3,000,000 $347,800,000
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 Apr 17, 2015 Sony / Columbia
$2,800,000 $66,600,000
The Age of Adaline Apr 24, 2015 Lionsgate
$2,500,000 $40,900,000
Home (2015) Mar 27, 2015 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$2,400,000 $168,700,000
Far from the Madding Crowd May 1, 2015 Fox Searchlight
$2,300,000 $5,450,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Tomorrowland, Poltergeist, predictions

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