Weekend Forecast: 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' & 'Vacation'

Featured Stories - on July 29, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

jul31.pngJuly comes to a close with two veteran franchises returning to the big screen this weekend.

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

PROS:

- Reviews are very positive so far, which could help sway those on the fence about a fifth installment in the venerable series.
- The goodwill from 2011's Ghost Protocol should also help boost interest in Rogue, not to mention last year's strongly received Edge of Tomorrow (also starring Cruise).
- Twitter activity is significantly ahead of Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which similarly opened to strong reviews last July.

CONS:

- Despite generally positive word of mouth for his recent films, Cruise's drawing power still isn't what it used to be.
- After such a big summer already, audience demand for more action blockbusters may be cooling off at this point.
- Flixster and Facebook buzz are positive, although somewhat modest compared to blockbuster releases.

Vacation

PROS:

- The marketing campaign has closely emulated that of We're the Millers, a major late summer hit for Warner Bros. two years ago.
- Ed Helms should still be able to draw some fans thanks to his past successes in The Hangover and TV's The Office.
- Built-in interest from the original films could drive curiosity among adult audiences. 

CONS:

- Reviews and word of mouth are a big concern, especially since the film already fell short of We're the Millers' Tuesday night pre-show gross.
- Social media activity has flat-lined in recent weeks as reviews and negative buzz have come to light.
- In general, it's been a tough summer for R-rated comedies to significantly breakout beyond expectations.

Top 10 Forecast

We're forecasting a $147.4 million tally from this weekend's top ten films. That would represent a 12 percent decline from the same frame last year, which totaled $167.8 million as Guardians of the Galaxy set a new August opening weekend record with $94.3 million.

Check out our complete forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, August 2
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation Jul 31, 2015 Paramount
$57,000,000 $57,000,000
Vacation (2015) Jul 29, 2015 Warner Bros. / New Line
$17,000,000 $24,000,000
Ant-Man Jul 17, 2015 Disney
$13,700,000 $133,200,000
Minions Jul 10, 2015 Universal
$12,700,000 $287,700,000
Pixels Jul 24, 2015 Sony / Columbia
$11,300,000 $46,700,000
Trainwreck Jul 17, 2015 Universal
$11,200,000 $81,300,000
Southpaw Jul 24, 2015 Weinstein Company
$9,300,000 $33,300,000
Paper Towns Jul 24, 2015 Fox
$5,300,000 $24,700,000
Inside Out (2015) Jun 19, 2015 Disney
$5,200,000 $330,200,000
Jurassic World Jun 12, 2015 Universal
$4,700,000 $632,400,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report. 

Tags: Vacation, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, predictions

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