Weekend Forecast: 'Pixels', 'Paper Towns', & 'Southpaw'

Featured Stories - on July 22, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

july24pred.pngThis weekend will see three new wide releases vie for a piece of the hot summer market.

Pixels

PROS:

- Regardless of industry criticism, Adam Sandler still boasts a notable family audience that typically show up for his more accessible films.
- The recent wave of nostalgia-driven box office successes could carry over to this pic with multi-generational appeal.
- Flixster and Facebook activity are encouraging for what is, technically, a non-franchise/non-sequel film.

CONS:

- Sandler's audience has nevertheless diminished in recent years, with the Grown Ups films being the exceptions to that rule.
- In an already fairly crowded summer, audiences may not view Pixels as a need-to-see type of movie.
- Twitter activity leaves much to be desired.

Paper Towns

PROS:

- Author John Green has quite a few young adult fans thanks to last year's hugely successful The Fault In Our Stars.
- In general, young adult films are still strong properties right now.
- With nearly 1.4 million Facebook fans and strong Twitter movement this week, there's definitely a young audience out there for this.

CONS:

- Shailene Woodley's popularity was increasing at the right time before Fault last year. Unfortunately, neither of the two stars here are in quite the same league of recognition yet.
- Flixster activity is relatively soft for the genre. 
- With so much competition in the market, this could have a hard time breaking out beyond the core teen demo.

Southpaw

PROS:

- Adults looking for something other than a popcorn movie may find a welcome reprieve in this.
- Jake Gyllenhaal continues to take on challenging performances, something his fans will probably turn out for.
- Twitter buzz is increasingly strong.

CONS:

- Reviews are heading in the wrong direction, which unfortunately could hurt the film's outlook before it even opens.
- Flixster and Facebook activity haven't done much to impress.
- Marketing for the somewhat under-the-radar summer release has been modest.

Top 10 Forecast

We're forecasting a $169.4 million gross from this weekend's top ten films. That would represent a 28 percent increase from the same frame last year, which generated $132 million and was led by newcomers Lucy ($43.9 million) and Hercules ($29.8 million).

Check out our complete weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Domestic Total through Sunday, July 26
Pixels Jul 24, 2015 Sony / Columbia
$39,000,000 $39,000,000
Paper Towns Jul 24, 2015 Fox
$26,000,000 $26,000,000
Ant-Man Jul 17, 2015 Disney
$25,800,000 $108,000,000
Minions Jul 10, 2015 Universal
$25,500,000 $265,800,000
Trainwreck Jul 17, 2015 Universal
$18,500,000 $62,800,000
Southpaw Jul 24, 2015 Weinstein Company
$14,000,000 $14,000,000
Inside Out (2015) Jun 19, 2015 Disney
$7,800,000 $321,000,000
Jurassic World Jun 12, 2015 Universal
$7,500,000 $624,500,000
Mr. Holmes Jul 17, 2015 Roadside Attractions
$3,000,000 $6,600,000
Terminator Genisys Jul 1, 2015 Paramount
$2,300,000 $85,600,000
Magic Mike XXL Jul 1, 2015 Warner Bros.
$2,200,000 $63,500,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Southpaw, Paper Towns, Pixels, predictions

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