Weekend Forecast: 'Fantastic Four', 'Ricki and the Flash', 'The Gift', & 'Shaun the Sheep'

Featured Stories - on August 05, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

aug7pred.pngThe first weekend of August brings a slew of new releases to theaters. Our analyses and forecast...

Fantastic Four

PROS:

- Director Josh Trank's sleeper hit Chronicle showcased a lot of promise for the talented young filmmaker in 2012.
- Bringing in young adult-friendly actors like Miles Teller, Michael B. Jordan, Kate Mara, and Jamie Bell could help appeal to that crowd.
- Tweet volume and overall Facebook fan totals are respectable.

CONS:

- Early reviews from major outlets are sour on the reboot, which won't help matters given the original two films aren't fondly remembered by most audiences.
- In the age of frequent comic book movie successes, the standards for the genre have been raised to an even higher level than they were when the last film came out in 2007.
- Recent growth in Flixster fan anticipation and Facebook likes have slowed dramatically, on top of very poor positive-to-negative ratios among Twitter mentions.

Ricki and the Flash

PROS:

- Meryl Streep certainly has a large enough following among casual audiences to attract business this weekend, ala August 2012's Hope Springs.
- Recent Twitter activity has been comparable to that of last year's The Hundred-foot Journey.

CONS:

- Flixster and Facebook growth have come at a slower pace than Hundred-foot Journey.
- Marketing has been minimal. It's possible that not even all of Streep's fans know that this is coming out. 

The Gift

PROS:

- Positive reviews are generating healthy buzz for this under-the-radar thriller.
- With a fairly recognizable cast of leads, this could prove to draw out genre fans.

CONS:

- Twitter and Facebook movement leave a little to be desired.
- Given the generally mediocre past few weeks at the box office, odds of a breakout seem low.

Shaun the Sheep

PROS:

- With Pixels missing its mark, this is the first kiddie-targeted film to open since Minions.
- Parents may find some reprieve from the typical CG animated flicks with this option, which is generating strong critical reviews.

CONS:

- The film's overseas release has done well, but it's inflated the pic's Facebook fan total (an impressive 5.6 million). Actual recent growth is quite slow. Twitter activity is middling.
- In general, stop-motion animation is hit or miss at the North American box office. 

Top 10 Forecast

BoxOffice predicts that this weekend's top ten films will tally around $130 million. That would mark a 23 percent decline from the same frame last year, which totaled $169.7 million and was led by the excellent $65.6 million debut of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy's $42.1 million sophomore frame.

Check out our complete weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, August 9
Fantastic Four (2015) Aug 7, 2015 Fox
$43,000,000 $43,000,000
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation Jul 31, 2015 Paramount
$28,500,000 $108,500,000
Ricki and the Flash Aug 7, 2015 Sony / TriStar
$9,000,000 $9,000,000
The Gift (2015) Aug 7, 2015 STX Entertainment
$8,500,000 $8,500,000
Vacation (2015) Jul 29, 2015 Warner Bros. / New Line
$8,300,000 $36,400,000
Minions Jul 10, 2015 Universal
$7,500,000 $302,800,000
Ant-Man Jul 17, 2015 Disney
$7,200,000 $146,800,000
Pixels Jul 24, 2015 Sony / Columbia
$6,200,000 $58,500,000
Trainwreck Jul 17, 2015 Universal
$6,000,000 $90,900,000
Shaun the Sheep Movie Aug 5, 2015 Lionsgate
$5,800,000 $7,500,000
Southpaw Jul 24, 2015 Weinstein Company
$4,500,000 $40,500,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: predictions, The Gift, Ricki and the Flash, Shaun the Sheep, Fantastic Four

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