Weekend Forecast: 'The Good Dinosaur', 'Mockingjay – Part 2', 'Creed', & 'Victor Frankenstein'

Featured Stories - on November 25, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

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It looks to be a close race for first place over Thanksgiving weekend between Disney's The Good Dinosaur and Lionsgate's The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2. There is a history of similar Thanksgiving weekend battles for first place in recent years; in 2013 the second weekend performance of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire outpaced the debut of Frozen, while back in 2010 the second weekend take of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 squeaked past the debut of Tangled.

This time around BoxOffice expects The Good Dinosaur to have the edge for first place, in part from Mockingjay - Part 2 getting off to a lower than expected start last weekend. However, Mockingjay - Part 2 has been displaying stronger early holding power than Mockingjay - Part 1 did during its initial days of release last year.

Also debuting this weekend is Warner and MGM's Creed, which looks set for a healthy third place holiday performance, and Fox's Victor Frankenstein, which is expected to be a soft performer. Fox Searchlight's Brooklyn will expand into semi-wide release this weekend, while Open Road's Spotlight will expand into additional locations.

The Good Dinosaur

PROS:

- Disney has had success launching computer animated films over Thanksgiving weekend in recent years. In 2013 Frozen had respective three-day and five-day holiday grosses of $67.4 million and $93.6 million, while Tangled had respective three-day and five-day takes of $48.8 million and $68.7 million.

- The film arrives after a summer that saw both Pixar's Inside Out have an exceptional performance and dinosaurs rule the box office in Jurassic World. Pixar and dinosaurs seems like an especially strong combination with that in mind.

- While critical reviews likely won't be quite as strong as they typically are for Pixar films, critical reviews are still looking very good so far with the film having a current 87 percent Tomatometer on Rotten Tomatoes.

CONS:

- Disney has never released two Pixar films in the same calendar year before. It is possible that the break-out performance of Inside Out could limit demand a bit for The Good Dinosaur among more casual Pixar fans.

- The film has been pushed back by two years from its original release date as a result of its well-publicized production delays. In that time, initial excitement for the project may have declined among some.

- The film has been performing similar on Twitter to Hotel Transylvania 2 before it was released. That comparison doesn't scream break-out for The Good Dinosaur, especially as a Wednesday release.

Creed

PROS:

- The Rocky franchise was one of the most popular franchises of the 1970s and 1980s. And when adjusting for ticket price inflation even the adjusted total grosses for 1990's Rocky V and 2006's Rocky Balboa are both over $80 million now.

- Relaunching the franchise in a new direction, as opposed to making another typical sequel, has helped build renewed excitement in Rocky.

- Critical reviews for the film are very strong. The film currently boasts a 94 percent Tomatometer on Rotten Tomatoes.

CONS:

- Sylvester Stallone's career resurgence has come to a halt recently with the disappointing performances of Escape Plan, Grudge Match and The Expendables 3.

- 2013's Fruitvale Station, which also starred Michael B. Jordan and was also directed by Ryan Coogler, didn't take off at the box office despite being very well received by critics.

- While the franchise relaunch nature of Creed should help prevent sequel fatigue, as the seventh installment of the Rocky franchise, it is still possible that some sequel fatigue could creep into play.

Victor Frankenstein

PROS:

- Daniel Radcliffe has had previous success in the horror genre with 2012's The Woman in Black, which opened with $20.8 million.

- Thrillers and action genre fare have a history of registering solid debuts as alternative choices over Thanksgiving weekend, with examples including 2012's Red Dawn, 2009's Ninja Assassin and 2007's Hitman. Victor Frankenstein could appeal towards the same audience.

CONS:

- Frankenstein hasn't been an exciting property at the box office in recent years, with 2014's I, Frankenstein and 2012's Frankenweenie having both disappointed.

- Early reviews for the film are very poor. The film currently has a Tomatometer of just 11 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Adult audiences are sure to choose the much better reviewed Creed instead.

- The film hasn't shown much growth on Twitter this week. That usually isn't a good sign, especially for a Wednesday release.

Top 10 Forecast

BoxOffice projects this weekend's top ten films will total $182.9 million over the three-day weekend. That would represent a 20.4 percent increase over the $151.9 million top ten total from the same frame last year, thanks in large part to the combination of The Good Dinosaur and Creed looking much stronger than last year's combination of Penguins of Madagascar ($25.4 million) and Horrible Bosses 2 ($15.5 million).

Check out our complete three-day forecast in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Domestic Total Through Sunday, Nov 29
The Good Dinosaur Nov 25, 2015 Disney $54,000,000 $74,000,000
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 Nov 20, 2015 Lionsgate $50,500,000 $197,000,000
Creed Nov 25, 2015 Warner Bros. / New Line $26,000,000 $39,000,000
Spectre Nov 6, 2015 Sony / Columbia $11,700,000 $175,000,000
The Peanuts Movie Nov 6, 2015 Fox $11,500,000 $119,500,000
Victor Frankenstein Nov 25, 2015 Fox $9,200,000 $14,200,000
The Night Before Nov 20, 2015 Sony / Columbia $8,000,000 $24,300,000
Secret in Their Eyes Nov 20, 2015 STX Entertainment $4,500,000 $14,400,000
Spotlight Nov 6, 2015 Open Road $3,800,000 $11,800,000
Brooklyn Nov 4, 2015 Fox Searchlight $3,700,000 $7,100,000
Love the Coopers Nov 13, 2015 CBS Films / Lionsgate $3,600,000 $21,300,000
The Martian Oct 2, 2015 Fox $3,400,000 $219,000,000

Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Tags: Victor Frankenstein, Creed, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, The Good Dinosaur, box office predictions

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