Weekend Forecast: 'Deadpool', 'Triple 9', 'Gods of Egypt' & 'Eddie the Eagle'
Featured Stories - on February 24, 2016 by Daniel Garris
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
Fox's Deadpool will have no problem continuing to dominate the box office once again this weekend. After experiencing a sizable 57 percent second weekend decline, the blockbuster antihero film starring Ryan Reynolds is likely to stabilize a bit this weekend, though a sizable decline is still expected due to built-in front-loading as an X-Men universe film.
This weekend will see Open Road's Triple 9, Lionsgate's Gods of Egypt and Fox's Eddie the Eagle all enter the marketplace. Due in part to the negative buzz that has surrounded Gods of Egypt for months, BoxOffice feels Triple 9 will finish slightly ahead this weekend in the race for second place between the two films. BoxOffice sees Eddie the Eagle being a bit slower out of the gate this weekend.
- Triple 9 has a very strong ensemble cast that includes Casey Affleck, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Anthony Mackie, Aaron Paul, Norman Reedus, Woody Harrelson and Kate Winslet.
- Although it has dipped just below Gods of Egypt on Twitter the past couple of days, over the past two months Triple 9 has been significantly stronger than Gods of Egypt on Twitter.
- As the weekend goes on, Triple 9 could benefit if Gods of Egypt does indeed go over poorly with initial audiences on Friday.
- Triple 9 not picking up the pace a bit more on Twitter this week is a bit concerning, especially given that Open Road has a history of films having inflated online activity.
- The film currently boasts a modest 58 percent Tomatometer on Rotten Tomatoes. While critical reviews won't hurt the film at that rate, they likely won't help much either.
- Deadpool and Gods of Egypt will provide plenty of direct competition this weekend.
Gods of Egypt
- Gods of Egypt has a strong ensemble cast that includes Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Gerard Butler, Brenton Thwaites and Geoffrey Rush. Director Alex Proyas has also had a noteworthy following over the years.
- A film featuring Egyptian deities could appeal to the same moviegoers who have showed up for the Clash of the Titans and Percy Jackson films in recent years.
- In the box office battle with Triple 9 this weekend, Gods of Egypt will have the advantages of higher priced 3D and IMAX 3D admissions, as well as a significantly larger location count.
- While it has picked up the pace a bit this week, in general Gods of Egypt has been performing softly on Twitter, with a sizable percentage of the film's online activity being negative in tone as well.
- Gods of Egypt has generated much discussed controversy for having a largely white cast playing Egyptian characters, which has contributed to the early negative buzz surrounding the film.
- Critical reviews have yet to come in for Gods of Egpyt, but the general assumption is that the film is highly likely to be received quite poorly by critics once reviews start coming in.
- Deadpool and Triple 9 will provide plenty of direct competition this weekend.
Eddie the Eagle
- Taron Egerton (coming off his performance of last year's Kingsman: The Secret Service) and Hugh Jackman give Eddie the Eagle some star power.
- With a current Tomatometer of 77 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, Eddie the Eagle is on pace to be the best received film of the weekend, at least with critics.
- The film received an ad during Super Bowl 50.
- While Twitter activity has picked up a bit after the film's Super Bowl ad aired, in general, Eddie the Eagle has been performing softly on Twitter.
- Regardless of the film's quality and its stars, a film about a British ski jumper from Great Britain in the 1980s is likely to be a tough sell to today's audiences.
- Hugh Jackman's presence did little to help last year's Chappie.
Top 10 Forecast
Thanks in part to the expected continued strength of Deadpool, BoxOffice projects this weekend's top ten films will total $91.3 million. That would represent a slim 2 percent increase over the $89.4 million top ten total of the same weekend last year, which was led by the $18.7 million debut of Warner's Focus and also saw the $10.2 million launch of Relativity's The Lazarus Effect.
Check out our complete forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total Through Sunday, Feb 28
|Deadpool||Feb 12, 2016||Fox||$29,000,000||$283,000,000|
|Triple 9||Feb 26, 2016||Open Road||$11,500,000||$11,500,000|
|Gods of Egypt||Feb 26, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$10,500,000||$10,500,000|
|Kung Fu Panda 3||Jan 29, 2016||Fox / DreamWorks Animation||$8,300,000||$127,600,000|
|Eddie the Eagle||Feb 26, 2016||Fox||$7,500,000||$7,500,000|
|Risen||Feb 19, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$7,300,000||$23,200,000|
|How to Be Single||Feb 12, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$5,000,000||$39,600,000|
|The Witch||Feb 19, 2016||A24||$4,700,000||$16,200,000|
|Race (2016)||Feb 19, 2016||Focus||$4,500,000||$14,100,000|
|The Revenant (2015)||Dec 25, 2015||Fox||$3,000,000||$169,700,000|
|Star Wars: The Force Awakens||Dec 18, 2015||Disney||$2,700,000||$925,700,000|
|Zoolander 2||Feb 12, 2016||Paramount||$2,300,000||$27,400,000|