Weekend Forecast: 'Zootopia', 'London Has Fallen', 'Deadpool' & 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot'
Featured Stories - on March 02, 2016 by Daniel Garris
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
Disney's Zootopia appears set for a break-out performance this weekend, as buzz continues to build in a big way for the latest computer animated film from Walt Disney Animation Studios. BoxOffice feels increasingly confident in Zootopia, as the film continues to register strong online activity levels, has received exceptional early critical reviews and has performed very well overseas thus far.
Also entering the marketplace this weekend are Focus' London Has Fallen and Paramount's Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. BoxOffice expects London Has Fallen to finish in a distant, but solid, second place this weekend, but is far less enthusiastic about the box office prospects for Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. And after dominating the box office for the past three weeks, Fox's Deadpool should fall to third place this weekend, while surpassing the $300 million domestic milestone in the process.
- Walt Disney Animation Studios has been on a roll since the release of 2010's Tangled, which grossed $200.8 million in total domestically. The animation studio's other films since then have included 2012's Wreck-It Ralph ($189.4 million in total domestically), 2013's Frozen ($400.7 million) and 2014's Big Hero 6 ($222.5 million). Zootopia looks to be another big winner for Walt Disney Animation.
- Zootopia has been performing extremely well on Twitter. While the film's early overseas start and potential appeal with adults is likely inflating its Tweet levels, Tweet levels for Zootopia in the days leading up to its release have been only 7 percent softer than those of last year's Minions at the same point in its cycle.
- As of publishing, Zootopia has a perfect 100 percent Tomatometer on Rotten Tomatoes, with 46 crticial reviews currently in.
- With Kung Fu Panda 3 now winding down its run, the family marketplace will be wide open for Zootopia this weekend.
- A debut ahead of the $67.9 million start of Cinderella last March feels very possible at this point for Zootopia, especially with its added advantage of higher priced 3D admissions.
- As mentioned, online activity levels for Zootopia are likely inflated given the film's early overseas launch and its potential appeal with adult moviegoers.
- While it will help in the long run, the lack of competition Zootopia will face for family audiences throughout the month of March could lead to some minor deflation of the film's opening weekend performance.
London Has Fallen:
- 2013's Olympus Has Fallen was a surprise hit with an opening weekend take of $30.4 million and a total domestic gross of $98.9 million.
- Action films have a history of serving as strong alternatives to high-profile animated films. Olympus Has Fallen was an example of this, as it opened the same weekend as The Croods.
- London Has Fallen could get an extra boost from both Gods of Egypt and Triple 9 having performed poorly last weekend.
- London Has Fallen has been generating soft activity levels on Twitter, though it should be noted that Olympus Has Fallen was also a soft performer on Twitter back in 2013.
- While Olympus Has Fallen was received well by moviegoers, it didn't seem to scream for a sequel, especially with the similarly themed White House Down having been released shortly after Olympus Has Fallen.
- London Has Fallen could prove to be critic proof, at least on opening weekend, but the film's current Tomatometer of 19 percent on Rotten Tomatoes is concerning.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
- Tina Fey has been a consistent box office draw over the years and is coming off the strong performance of last year's Sisters, which has grossed $86.99 million to date domestically.
- There have been a limited amount of wide releases aimed directly at female moviegoers in recent weeks. The recent void could help Whiskey Tango Foxtrot out a bit.
- A war comedy will be a much tougher sell to audiences than Sisters was and unlike Sisters (and Baby Mama), Whiskey Tango Foxtrot doesn't feature Amy Poehler (though it does feature Margot Robbie).
- While it has picked up the pace a bit this week, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot continues to generate modest online activity levels on Twitter.
- Fey's Admission (which opened against Olympus Has Fallen), underwhelmed with a $6.2 million debut back in 2013. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot feels like it's headed for a performance more along the lines of Admission than Fey's box office hits.
Top 10 Forecast
Thanks in part to the expected strong launch of Zootopia, BoxOffice projects this weekend's top ten films will total $142.5 million. That would represent an exceptional 97 percent increase over $72.3 million top ten total of the same weekend last year, which was led by the lackluster $13.3 million debut of Sony's Chappie and also saw the solid $8.5 million start of Fox Searchlight's The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and the disappointing $4.8 million launch of Fox's Unfinished Business.
Check out our complete forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total Through
Sunday, Mar 6
|Zootopia||Mar 4, 2016||Disney||$71,000,000||$71,000,000|
|London Has Fallen||Mar 4, 2016||Focus / Gramercy||$21,000,000||$21,000,000|
|Deadpool||Feb 12, 2016||Fox||$17,500,000||$312,000,000|
|Whiskey Tango Foxtrot||Mar 4, 2016||Paramount||$8,300,000||$8,300,000|
|Gods of Egypt||Feb 26, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$6,300,000||$24,400,000|
|Kung Fu Panda 3||Jan 29, 2016||Fox / DreamWorks Animation||$4,200,000||$134,500,000|
|Risen||Feb 19, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$4,000,000||$28,700,000|
|The Revenant (2015)||Dec 25, 2015||Fox||$3,700,000||$176,400,000|
|Eddie the Eagle||Feb 26, 2016||Fox||$3,400,000||$11,200,000|
|Triple 9||Feb 26, 2016||Open Road||$3,100,000||$11,300,000|
|The Witch||Feb 19, 2016||A24||$3,000,000||$21,400,000|
|How to Be Single||Feb 12, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$2,900,000||$44,100,000|