Long Range Forecast: 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows' & 'Me Before You'
Featured Stories - on April 08, 2016 by Daniel Garris
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
Four new wide releases are scheduled to launch on June 3. Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is clearly the highest profile release of the weekend, though BoxOffice does feel that the film will drop off from the performance of its predecessor, Also debuting on June 3 will be Warner's Me Before You, Universal's Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping and STX Entertainment's The Bye Bye Man.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (Paramount)
- 2014's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles exceeded expectations in a big way with a $65.6 million debut and a final domestic gross of $191.2 million.
- The performance of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was especially impressive given that the film opened just one week after Disney's Guardians of the Galaxy. With that in mind, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows should be able to co-exist with Fox's X-Men: Apocalypse, especially since Out of the Shadows should skew more towards younger moviegoers than Apocalypse.
- The additions of Casey Jones, Bebop and Rocksteady should be helpful to Out of the Shadows.
- Early Twitter activity this far out has been solid for a high-profile film with family appeal.
- Nostalgia played a big factor in Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles exceeding expectations in 2014. Nostalgia likely won't play as big of a role this time around with older moviegoers.
- In opening soon after Sony's The Angry Birds Movie and Disney's Alice Through the Looking Glass and just two weeks before Disney's Finding Dory, the film will be facing plenty of competition for family audiences.
Me Before You (Warner Bros. / New Line)
- While it is sure to have highly inflated activity on Twitter, the film's early Twitter activity has been very encouraging.
- Release date changes usually aren't the greatest sign, but in this case opening the film in the summer instead of the spring is likely to prove beneficial, especially with the opportunity for strong midweek grosses.
- Fans of Emilia Clarke could provide a boost to the film's performance.
- Me Before You will face fairly direct competition from Alice Through the Looking Glass. In addition, it will be tough for the film to expand beyond its target audience given how busy the early June marketplace looks to be this year.
- Online activity for Me Before You could be further inflated by the film's likely popularity in the United Kingdom.
- While we like the decision to release Me Before You in the summer; the film having had multiple release date changes is still a bit concerning.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows||Jun 3, 2016||Paramount||$55,000,000||$150,000,000|
|Me Before You||Jun 3, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$15,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping||Jun 3, 2016||Universal||$11,000,000||$28,000,000|
|The Bye Bye Man||Jun 3, 2016||STX Entertainment||$7,000,000||$17,000,000|
|X-Men: Apocalypse||May 27, 2016||Fox||$124,000,000*||$260,000,000|
|Alice Through the Looking Glass||May 27, 2016||Disney||$74,000,000*||$180,000,000|
|Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising||May 20, 2016||Universal||$51,000,000||$135,000,000|
|The Angry Birds Movie||May 20, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$43,000,000||$140,000,000|
|The Nice Guys||May 20, 2016||Warner Bros.||$12,000,000||$37,000,000|
|Money Monster||May 13, 2016||Sony / TriStar||$11,000,000||$32,000,000|
|The Darkness||May 13, 2016||High Top / BH Tilt||$6,000,000||$13,000,000|
|Captain America: Civil War||May 6, 2016||Disney||$167,000,000||$435,000,000|
|Keanu||Apr 29, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$20,000,000||$50,000,000|
|Mother's Day (2016)||Apr 29, 2016||Open Road||$13,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Ratchet & Clank||Apr 29, 2016||Focus / Gramercy||$7,500,000||$19,000,000|
|The Huntsman: Winter’s War||Apr 22, 2016||Universal||$29,000,000||$72,000,000|
|The Jungle Book (2016)||Apr 15, 2016||Disney||$70,000,000||$220,000,000|
|Barbershop: The Next Cut||Apr 15, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$18,000,000||$44,000,000|
|Criminal (2016)||Apr 15, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$8,000,000||$22,000,000|
* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.